These are strange times in bond markets. The last six months have turned the interest rate cycle — never a very reliable oscillator — on its head. Not everything is President Trump’s fault of course — but this kind of is. Since the US attacked Iran on Feb... See more
Financial markets are not shy of making their anxieties felt — in theory. When Kwasi Kwarteng as UK chancellor of the exchequer gave his infamous fiscally expansive mini-Budget in September 2022, the 10 year Gilt yield spiked nearly 100bp in days. US pres... See more
Capital markets have barely reacted to the unprecedented heatwaves sweeping Europe and north America, even though they give a foretaste of much worse disruption to come. The markets’ seeming insouciance is partly down to investors struggling to know how t... See more
The three month euro/dollar basis swap was traditionally called the bully of the curve because it controlled the rest, but there is no doubt who’s the boss now — dirty old oil. As the US and Iran traded blows, Houthi threats to close the Gulf of Aden made... See more
A basis point might always be the same quantity, but is it a lot or a little? It depends whom you ask, and when. For supranational, sovereign and agency bond issuers in the dollar market, 1.7bp over Treasuries and 1.9bp over are two different things. Reco... See more
